000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 6N85W 5N110W 6N130W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 19N AND 
EXTENDS FROM AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 44N130W. MAIN ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH IS PIVOTING 
NEWD OFF THE W COAST OF CALIFORNIA LEAVING BEHIND A SHEARED 
PORTION WHICH EXTENDS FROM 30N117W SWWD TO 19N130W. AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED W TO THE SHEARED TROUGH 
AXIS FROM 20N TO 27W BETWEEN 117W AND 135W. A 90-110 KT JET 
STREAM EXTENDS FROM 25N135W SEWD THROUGH 23N120W TO CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO NRN MEXICO WHERE IT WEAKENS WITHIN AN AREA OF 
DIFFLUENT FLOW. JTST WAS ADVECTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EWD INTO 
NW MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERED THE 
TROPICS S OF 15N AND WAS INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W 25N130W 23N137W...THEN 
STATIONARY TO 23N140W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS AND 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. WEAK SURFACE 1016 MB 
HIGH PRES IS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N119W. 

E OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTEND WWD INTO 
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WITH  
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WHICH 
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...
1130 UTC SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 
24-30 HOURS THEN DECREASE SLOWLY THEREAFTER. 

$$
COBB