000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280418
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W  4N110W  7N127W  4N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 96W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 122W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF AREA AT 
43N132W HAS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SSEWD TO 32N126W AND 
ENCROACHES INTO FORECAST WATERS N OF 28N.  FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE PREVENTS IT FROM DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH.  MOISTURE ADVECTED 
SE BY 120 KT JET CORE UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH BACKS AROUND BASE AND 
HEADS NE MAKING PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA 
...BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINES 
INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER SW CONUS ADDING 
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.  LACK OF UPLIFTING 
MECHANISM DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH 
PREVENTS THE EVENT.

LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES 
THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO INTO E PAC NEAR 6N95W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS 
WITHIN 6-8 DEG OF TROUGH AXIS.  LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTEND WWD INTO CARIBBEAN AND FAR E PAC. 
CONFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LARGE AMPLITUDE 
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG E COAST OVER GULF OF MEXICO... 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...   
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 24N140W MOVING ESEWD 20 KT 
WITH ASSOCIATED BRISK WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.   
BRISK NE TRADES ON SRN PERIPHERY OF 1018 MB HIGH PRES AT 27N121W 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRES IS FORCED S BY COLD FRONT.    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS EXPECTED TO 
DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS AS INCREASING SE FLOW IN GULF OF 
MEXICO CUTS OFF SUPPLY OF COLD AIR N OF GAP.  WIND IN GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES