000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W  5N92W  3N105W  7N130W  4N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 88W AND 93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 123W TO 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF AREA AT 
36N136W HAS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SSEWD TO 32N132W AND 
ENCROACHES INTO FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N.  FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE PREVENTS IT FROM DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH.  MOISTURE 
ADVECTED SE BY 125 KT JET CORE UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH BACKS 
AROUND BASE AND HEADS NE MAKING PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE 
OVER SRN CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. 
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINES INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE 
OVER SW CONUS ADDING INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.  
LACK OF UPLIFTING MECHANISM DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM 
FROM TROUGH PREVENTS THE EVENT.

LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES 
THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO INTO E PAC NEAR 12N105W.  VERY DRY 
AIRMASS WITHIN 6-8 DEG OF TROUGH AXIS.  EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE OVER VENEZUELA EXTENDED WWD INTO CARIBBEAN AND FAR E 
PAC. CONFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LARGE AMPLITUDE 
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG E COAST WAS EVIDENT OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED.

AT THE SURFACE...   
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W MOVING ESEWD 20 KT 
WITH ASSOCIATED BRISK WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.   
BRISK NE TRADES ON SRN PERIPHERY OF 1018 MB HIGH PRES AT 26N122W 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRES IS FORCED S BY COLD FRONT.    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS EXPECTED TO 
DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS AS INCREASING SE FLOW IN GULF OF 
MEXICO CUTS OFF SUPPLY OF COLD AIR N OF GAP.  WIND IN GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES