000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270434
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  5N77W  6N90W  4N100W  6N127W  3N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS ALONG 138W WITH 90 KT WIND 
USHERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE N OF 20N W OF 105W ON 85 KT JET.  
POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NW CORNER OF FORECAST 
WATERS EXPECTED TO ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 
32N138W.  LOW PRES TO BECOME DEVELOPING GALE JUST N OF FORECAST 
WATERS WITH 20-25 KT AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF 
132W.  
 
SHALLOW CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG 119W FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY ALSO 
SHALLOW RIDGE ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NW 
MEXICO WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS REMAIN S OF 20N.  LARGE 
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SW FROM NE STATES THROUGH NE GULF 
OF MEXICO TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 12N99W.  GOOD CONVERGENCE WITH 
SE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA 
CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS.  
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET CORE 100 KT INCREASE ITS SPEED TO 150 KT 
ADVECTING MOISTURE NE FROM NW SOUTH AMERICA.  ISOLATED DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ S OF 8N W OF 120W AND E OF 95W.

STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 
18 HRS AS GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E INTO ATLC 
BASIN.  STRONG NE WIND ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD REMAIN 
LONGER AS HIGH PRES 1017 MB JUST N OF CARIBBEAN SEA MAINTAINS 
TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS S HALF OF CARIBBEAN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES