000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  5N77W  6N90W  4N100W  6N127W  3N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 89W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS ALONG 140W WITH 90 KT WIND 
USHERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE N OF 22N W OF 110W AS WIND FLOW 
FLATTENS DOWNSTREAM.  MOST ACTION REMAINS N OF 32N WHERE DEEP 
LAYER NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS DEEPENING  
SURFACE LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 32N140W SPIN ITS WAY NE. 
LOW PRES LEANING TOWARDS A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE JUST N OF 
FORECAST WATERS WITH 20-30 KT EXPECTED N OF 27N.  
 
SHALLOW CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG 120W FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY ALSO 
SHALLOW RIDGE PROVIDE MODERATE DIFFLUENCE OVER GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO.  WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS REMAIN S 
OF 20N.  LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SW FROM NE STATES 
THROUGH NE GULF OF MEXICO TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 13N110W.  GOOD 
CONVERGENCE WITH SE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY 
AIR MASS.  STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET CORE 100 KT INCREASE ITS SPEED 
TO 150 KT ADVECTING MOISTURE NE FROM NW SOUTH AMERICA.  ISOLATED 
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ S OF 8N W OF 120W AND E OF 88W.

STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 
24 HRS AS GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E INTO ATLC 
BASIN.  STRONG NE WIND ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD REMAIN 
LONGER AS HIGH PRES 1017 MB JUST N OF CARIBBEAN SEA MAINTAINS 
TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS S HALF OF CARIBBEAN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES