000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 5N77W 6N90W 4N100W 5N127W 1N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 90 
NM OF 8.5N121W.  

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N 
WITH A RIDGE OVER NW MEXICO ALONG 108W-110W...A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC ALONG 32N132W TO 18N125W 
AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ALONG 145W. ALL FEATURES WERE MOVING EWD 15-20 KT. DIFFLUENT 
FLOW E OF THE TROUGH WAS ENHANCING AN AREA OF MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WHICH WAS ALSO IN ADVANCE 
OF A 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 31N140W. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WELL NW OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD OVER THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS AND ALLOW LOW PRES TO INTENSIFY WITH GALE CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED N OF THE AREA. FARTHER S...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR 
ALOFT COVERS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC S OF 18N.  HOWEVER...DIFFLUENT 
FLOW E OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FROM 11N125W TO 
1N135W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 120W AND 123W DESPITE THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. 
FINALLY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES AREA HAS WEAKENED THE 
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED TRADES TO THE SOUTH 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

E OF 100W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN EXPANSIVE 
ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN S AMERICA WWD AND NNWD INTO NW CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE TROUGH FURTHER N 
AND E OVER THE ERN U.S. AND W ATLANTIC. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. AS SUCH...DEEP 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. 

CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...
1222 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS STILL INDICATED 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE 
AND DROP BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 30-36 HOURS. THIS SAME PASS ALSO 
INDICATED NE WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA LATER TODAY BUT 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT. 

$$
COBB