000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 9N84W 2N93W 6N120W EQ140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
A BROAD/FLAT RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 110W WITH A WEAK 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W PART OF THE AREA ALONG 140W. THE 
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING 
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N120W 
28N133W TO 29N143W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N OF AREA 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW TRACKS NEWD AROUND 15 KT. 
THE LOW WILL DRAG A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO 
EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED 
ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS IT LIFTS N TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NEW COLD FRONT LATE SUN 
AND MON.  FARTHER S...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC S OF 15N.  HOWEVER...DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FROM 10N115W TO 1N136W IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 115W AND 135W DESPITE THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. 
FINALLY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED THE 
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED TRADES TO THE SOUTH 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. 

E OF 110W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W MEXICO NWD INTO 
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE TROUGH FURTHER E OVER 
THE E U.S. AND W ATLANTIC. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE 
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO.  AS SUCH...DEEP CONVECTION IS 
LIMITED.  WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION EXISTS APPEARS DUE TO 
DEEP-LAYERED WLY FLOW ENCOUNTERING THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE 
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.   

CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE 
DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.  NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT 
BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KT OR LESS. 

$$
RHOME