000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 8N83W 4N90W 4N110W 5N120W DIPPING BELOW THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
A BROAD/FLAT RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 110W WITH A WEAK 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W PART OF THE AREA ALONG 140W. THE 
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING 
ADDITIONAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE 
WILL PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER 
THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  
FARTHER S...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC S OF 15N.  HOWEVER...DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FROM 10N115W TO 1N136W IS AIDING 
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...DESPITE THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. AT THE 
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING FROM S CALIFORNIA THROUGH 29N130W TO BEYOND 28N140W. 
LACKING APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...ONLY A NARROW BAND OF 
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE 
FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL MAKE LIMITED ADDITIONAL EQUATORWARD 
PROGRESS THIS EVENING AND BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE 
LIFTING BACK N OF THE AREA SUN. ELSEWHERE...A 1022 MB HIGH PRES 
IS CENTERED NEAR 26N129W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 
24N140W.

E OF 110W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W MEXICO NWD INTO 
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE TROUGH FURTHER E OVER 
THE E U.S. AND W ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL JET WITH WINDS ESTIMATED 
FROM 70-110 KT EXTENDS FROM 15N110W NE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO 
PRODUCING MODERATE WLY FLOW ACROSS ALL OF MEXICO AND N PORTIONS 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  THERE IS LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL 
DYNAMICS/LIFT WITH THIS PATTERN AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE AREA.  AS 
SUCH...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF 
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN THE ITCZ SW OF PANAMA. 

CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND 
BELOW 20 KT BY MON. NE WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NLY 
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KT OR LESS. 

$$
RHOME