000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251600 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 5N77W 3N90W 6N115W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
A FLAT BUT BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 110W WITH MEAN 
AXIS ALONG 125W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 
32N147W SSEWD TO NEAR 25N143W IS MOVING ENEWD AT 20 KT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT COVERED THE TROPICS S OF 17N. A WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF 14N ALONG 131W WAS MOVING EWD 10-15 KT.
DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THIS TROUGH WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 123W AND 130W...DESPITE THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. 

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 
28N140W. 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N129W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 10N102W AND A RIDGE SW TO BEYOND 24N140W.

E OF 110W...
A RATHER EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL E OF 
THE AREA NEAR 7N65W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W AND NWWD OVER 
THE WRN CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE PACIFIC E OF 100W. 
MODERATE ELY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS ADVECTING MID AND 
UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST OVER THE 
PACIFIC E OF 87W. A BROAD AREA OF SWLY FLOW WAS OCCURRING OVER 
THE AREA W OF 100W AND EXTENDED NWD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE E PACIFIC 
W OF 87W AND CONNECTED WITH THE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE 
TROPICS W OF 110W NOTED ABOVE. 

CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...GALE CONDITIONS IN FULL SWING OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE 1248 UTC 
QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED MOST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...35 KT 
WINDS WERE STILL NOTED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE PASS NEAR 14N96W. 
IN ADDITION A SHIP WITH CALLSIGN 4XFP LOCATED NEAR 14N95.5W 
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT AT 1200 UTC. GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO END WITHIN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS AND REMAIN 20-30 
KT THROUGH 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 20 KT BY 36-48 
HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 24 HOURS AND 
FINALLY SPREAD TO THE GULF OF PANAMA BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB