000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 5N77W  5N120W  3N130W  3N140W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 92W.

...DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC N OF 15N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TILTED FROM 32N121W TO 11N135W HAS 95 KT 
JET CORE ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE N OF 10N W OF 123W.  
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N114W TO EQUATOR AT 127W WITH DRY 
AIR MASS WITHIN 3 DEG EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BORDERS INCOMING FLUX  
OF MOISTURE.  FLAT RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS DRYNESS INTO 
DEEP TROPICS AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO CARIBBEAN BASIN. 
MOISTURE E OF TROUGH CONFINED TO N OF 20N E OF 112W...MAINLY 
OVER LAND.  

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ENCROACHING INTO NW CORNER OF 
FORECAST WATERS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS 
ABOUT TO ENTER REGION.  FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY WITHIN NEXT 
24 HRS BUT SWELL TRAINS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF E PAC NEXT 3-4 
DAYS.  HIGH PRES COVERS MUCH OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WITH 1023 MB 
CENTER AT 28N126W AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 13N112W. 
BRISK TRADES AND COASTAL WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA WEST COAST 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS AS RIDGE DRIFTS S.

00Z ANALYSIS INDICATES GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STRONG WINDS HAVE NOT 
STARTED YET AS GALE FORCE N WIND APPROACH N END OF ISTHMUS.  IT 
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE 06Z SO IT WAS INCLUDED IN WARNING 
SECTION OF HIGH SEAS.  PEAK WINDS ABOVE 45 KT AND SEAS TO 18 FT  
ARE POSSIBLE NEXT 24 HRS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES