000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 7N76W 6N95W 3N110W 4N125W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A 8N82W 6N86W LINE. 

...DISCUSSION...

PACIFIC N OF 15N...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS N OF 15N 
WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A 
BROAD/FLAT RIDGE W OF 125W. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WESTERLIES 
AND DYNAMICS REMAIN N OF THE AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS 
LOCATED OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N136W TO 
BEYOND 31N140W. SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE LIE IN ADVANCE 
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 
SUPPORT...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO 
THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N123W

PACIFIC S OF 15N...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE 
AIR ALOFT OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH MOSTLY MODERATE WESTERLY 
FLOW AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS 
LIMITED ITCZ ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.  

MEXICO....
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E UNITED 
STATES SWD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT FLOW 
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER N PORTIONS OF MEXICO 
GENERALLY POLEWARD OF 23N. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS SURGING SWD 
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG NLY 
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE LOW COUNTRY OF E 
MEXICO N OF THE FRONT. 

$$
RHOME