000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS  7N78W  2N120W  3N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH EXTEND FROM 34N128W SEWD TO 14N116W WITH 
HELP OF 70-90 JET CORE ON UPSTREAM SIDE ENTERING FORECAST AREA 
NEAR 32N138W DIGGING TO 13N113W...STRONGER CORE OF JET 
APPROACHING NW CORNER.  SHORT CREST RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MAINTAINS POCKET OF DRY AIRMASS DUE TO MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE IS FOLLOWED BY LONGWAVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO EQUATOR AT 89W.  MASSIVE WELL-ANCHORED MID/UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING 
NW ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND ERN CONUS.  MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINS DRY AIRMASS UNDER RIDGE S OF 25N.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1024 MB AT 32N125W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 10N105W 
DRIFTING S TO 28N125W WITHIN 24 HRS.  BRISK TRADES PRESENTLY 
BLOWING FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 118W WOULD DECREASE BELOW 20 KT 
AFTER 24 HRS.       
 
CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...HIGH PRES BEHIND GULF OF MEXICO COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITH WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY TO GALE FORCE UPPER FRINGES WITHIN 
NEXT 24 HRS...POSSIBILITY OF STROM FORCE WITHIN 36 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES