000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230358
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 7N78W 4N100W 4N115W 1N130W 2N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE 
TROUGHS SWEEPING EWD IN ZONAL FLOW AND EXTENDING WELL INTO THE 
TROPICS. FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SSWWD TO 20N107W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
OVER SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. NARROW UPSTREAM 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS N OF 25N ALONG 120W. FURTHER W....STRONGLY 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 34N135W SSEWD THROUGH 
30N132W TO 18N123W. AXIS OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS DIVING 
SEWD INTO THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND AIDING IN EVOLUTION OF 
NEGATIVELY TILTED NATURE OF TROUGH. AXIS OF JTST WAS ALONG 
28N140W-20N128W AND WAS CAPPING A RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE 
AREA WITH AXIS W OF 150W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE 
SPEEDS WERE 100-115 KT. A WEAKER BRANCH OF THE JET WAS ALSO 
NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. WEAK TROUGH WAS ALSO NOTED IN THE 
TROPICS ALONG 118W AND WAS MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. MODERATE DRY AIR 
ALOFT COVERED THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N126W 
DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W.  

E OF 100W...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSECTING THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND CONTINUING N INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER 
TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W TO A CREST 
NEAR 12N100W. A WEAK TROUGH SEPARATED THE TWO RIDGES AND WAS 
INDICATED ALONG 14N90W-6N90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E AND SW OF THIS 
TROUGH WAS AIDING ISOLATED ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 97W. OTHERWISE 
DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC E 
OF 100W...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  
 
CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD 
FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIDGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 30-36 HOURS AND RESULT IN A LATE SEASON  
GALE BY 36 HOURS WITH NWP MODELS FORECASTING WINDS OF 40-45 KT
BY 48 HOURS.  

$$
COBB