000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 7N78W 4N91W 4N117W 1N130W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N77W 7N83W 4N90W 4N98W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE 
TROUGHS SWEEPING EWD IN ZONAL FLOW AND EXTENDING WELL INTO THE 
TROPICS. FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
ERN NEW MEXICO SSWWD TO 20N110W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 100W AND 118W. NARROW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE WAS N OF 25N ALONG 123W. FURTHER W....STRONGLY NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 34N138W SSEWD THROUGH 30N135W TO 
17N125W. AXIS OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS DIVING SEWD INTO 
THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND AIDING IN EVOLUTION OF NEGATIVELY 
TILTED NATURE OF TROUGH. AXIS OF JTST WAS ALONG 27N140W-22N130W  
AND DIVED SEWD TO NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS WERE IN EXCESS OF 
100 KT. A WEAKER BRANCH OF THE JET WAS ALSO NOTED FROM 19N118W
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. WEAK TROUGH WAS ALSO NOTED IN THE TROPICS
ALONG 120W AND WAS MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT 
COVERED THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 
AT THE SURFACE 1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N126W DOMINATED THE AREA 
N OF 12N W OF 110W.  

E OF 100W...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER N-CENTRAL VENEZUELA WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSECTING THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND CONTINUING N INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER 
TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W TO A CREST 
NEAR 14N100W. A WEAK TROUGH SEPARATED THE TWO RIDGES AND WAS 
INDICATED ALONG 14N90W-5N88W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E AND SW OF THIS 
TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 97W. OTHERWISE 
DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC E 
OF 100W...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  
 
CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIDGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 36-42 HOURS AND RESULT IN A LATE SEASON  
GALE BY 48 HOURS WITH NWP MODELS ARE FORECASTING WINDS OF 40-45 
KT. 

$$
COBB