000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 7N78W 4N100W 3N120W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N77W 4N96W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES E PACIFIC WITH A DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 46N140W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS S 
ACROSS THE SW CONUS INTO DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N109W 4N128W. A 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION HAS AN AXIS ALONG 24N145W TO 
40N120W BUT IS COLLAPSING SE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES 
SE WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 38N140W 31N148W. UPPER MOISTURE 
IS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE ROUGHLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 26N144W 38N120W. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE EASTERN 
SHORTWAVE NOTED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N106W 
17N130W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSECTING THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND CONTINUING N INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER TROPICAL 
RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 115W TO A CREST NEAR 
12N107W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING A SMALL 
AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11N105W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
QUICKLY EVAPORATING. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 96W. A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N120W 19N103W AND 
LIKELY WAS PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS ITCZ CONVECTION. OTHERWISE DRY 
UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF LINE 5N140W 
20N100W 26N80W. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N127W 1022 MB RIDGES 
SE TO NEAR 13N100W AND ALSO RIDGES SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. 

CENTRAL AMERICAN GAPS...HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIDGE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 42 HOURS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE IN 48 
HOURS. LATEST SSMI INDICATE WINDS NE 15 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. LATEST QSCAT SHOWS NNW WINDS 5-10 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA.   

$$
NELSON