000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N7W  2N88W  5N106W  2N125W  5N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N OF AREA INLAND NEVADA HAS 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHING INTO FORECAST WATERS NEAR 32N124W 
THROUGH 6N140W.  TROUGH FLATTENING OUT AS VORTEX PULLS ENERGY NE 
BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL W OF 120W.  AREA ON BOTH SIDES OF TROUGH 
AXIS REMAINS QUITE DRY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT PREVENTING ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND CURTAILING ITCZ.
ONLY SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SEEPS E OF 140W NEAR 8N.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 85W MAINTAINS EXTENSIVE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF 110W WITH 
SUBTROPICAL 70 KT JET CORE ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO...SE TEXAS AND NW GULF OF MEXICO.  OTHERWISE AIRMASS 
UNDER RIDGE REMAINS DRY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. 

ON THE SURFACE...  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS LOSING ITS 
SRN PUSH AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS AS 
UPPER SUPPORT SHIFT MORE NE.  HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILD BEHIND FRONT 
THEN BECOMES ONLY FEATURE THROUGHOUT MOST E PAC N OF 10N W OF 
110W IMPOSING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER ITS DOMAIN.  RIDGE E MOVE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND SEA 
OF CORTEZ WITHIN 24 HRS. ELSEWHERE...NE TRADES AREA EXPANDS AND  
CONTINUES UNABATED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES 
STRENGTHENS.  ON THE OTHER HAND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS DIE DOWN 
AS ATLC RIDGE LOSES ITS POSITION TO COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH 
ATLC BASIN.     

$$
WALLY BARNES