000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202209 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAR 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N78W 2N90W 6N105W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 100W... RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N. SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE OK/KS BORDER SWWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO- SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N127W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED AT THE SW END OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. SHORTWAVE RIDGE N OF 26N ALONG 110W WAS MOVING EWD 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH. RIDGE WAS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH EXTENDED FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 32N125W TO 28N135W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDED FROM 18N120W ENEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN CONUS AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT A 300 NM WIDE BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE U.S. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERED THE TROPICS S OF 12N. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERED THE AREA FROM 30N130W TO 27N140W AND WAS ADVANCING SE AT 10-15 KT. COLD FRONT WAS MARKED BY A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. E OF 100W... FLAT UPPER RIDGE DOMINATED THE AREA WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 90W. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WAS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN AND RESULTED IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST NOTED ABOVE WAS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GAP WINDS... 1200 UTC QUIKSCAT AND MORE RECENT SHIP REPORTS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ COBB