000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200414
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N78W 6N105W 4N120W 4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC OVER ERN ARIZONA THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
22N125W TO 20N135W. AN AREA OF VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
IMPLIED DRY AIR ALOFT WAS INDICATED OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE 
TROUGH WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N120W 
21N130W TO 24N137W. TROUGH WAS UNDERCUTTING A SMALL ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 26N131W WHICH WAS PART OF A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH 32N125W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST 
CARVED OUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N130W ENEWD THROUGH 
22N115W ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO AND THE GREAT 
PLAINS OF THE U.S. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS 
OF 80-95 KT OVER THE PACIFIC INCREASING TO 120-130 KT OVER NRN 
MEXICO IN AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY CONFLUENT FLOW. SUBTROPICAL 
JTST CAPPED A 400-500 NM WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS AND BEING ADVECTED INTO MEXICO AND TEXAS. MODERATE 
TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT COVERED THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N. AT 
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM 30N135W SEWD 
THROUGH 24N120W 17N105W. 

E OF 110W...
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE AREA E OF 105W AND WAS 
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PACIFIC 
...CENTRAL AMERICA...ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...CARIBBEAN AND
SRN GULF OF MEXICO. SUBTROPICAL JTST NOTED W OF 110W WAS 
ADVECTING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND THE 
PACIFIC W OF 100W. A COL REMAINED NEAR 5N88W.  

GAP WINDS...
0035 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAD DROPPED TO 10-15 KT 
IN THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
NWP MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS IN THE AREA 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB