000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N78W 1N86W 7N105W 4N120W 1N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 
20N AND EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC OVER SRN ARIZONA 
THROUGH 26N116W TO 20N135W. AN AREA OF VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND IMPLIED DRY AIR ALOFT WAS INDICATED OVER THE WRN PORTION OF 
THE TROUGH WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N124W
22N132W TO 27N138W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST CARVED OUT THE BASE 
OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N130W ENEWD THROUGH 23N115W ACROSS SRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO AND THE GREAT BASIN OF THE U.S. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 90-100 KT OVER 
THE PACIFIC INCREASING TO 120-130 KT OVER NRN MEXICO IN AN AREA 
CHARACTERIZED BY CONFLUENT FLOW. SUBTROPICAL JTST CAPPED A 
300-450 NM WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
AND BEING ADVECTED INTO MEXICO AND THE U.S. MODERATE DRY AIR 
COVERED THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N. AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM A 1028 MB CENTER NEAR 32N140W SEWD 
THROUGH 22N120W 14N105W. 

E OF 110W...
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE AREA E OF 105W AND WAS 
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PACIFIC 
...CENTRAL AMERICA...ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...CARIBBEAN AND
SRN GULF OF MEXICO. SUBTROPICAL JHTST NOTED W OF 110W WAS 
ADVECTING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND THE 
PACIFIC W OF 100W. A COL WAS NOTED NEAR 5N88W.  

GAP WINDS...
1205 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS CONTINUING IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING WWD TO 10N92W. NWP MODELS 
DECREASE THE GRADIENT IN THE W CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS...THUS SIGNALING AN END TO THIS WEAK GAP WIND EVENT. 

$$
COBB