000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 6N105W 4N120W 1N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
RATHER SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SRN NEVADA SWWD THROUGH 
30N120W 27N130W TO 25N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS 
INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE 
STRONGEST AREA FROM 23N TO 30N W OF 126W AND IN THE VICINITY OF 
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 
26N135W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF 
THE TROUGH ALONG 22N135W-25N120W-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO 
FAR NWRN MEXICO AND THE SRN GREAT BASIN OF THE U.S. CORE SPEEDS 
WERE 90-100 KT OVER THE PACIFIC INCREASING TO 110-130 KT OVER 
THE SW CONUS. JTST WAS ADVECTING A PLUME OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE 
FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS BAJA INTO EXTREME NRN MEXICO. S OF 
15N...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BLANKETS THE 
TROPICS WITH A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 12N. DRY AIR WAS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ, AT THE SURFACE...HIGH 
PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SE ALONG 30N133W 24N120W 17N107W WITH 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET N OF 15N. MARINE LAYER STRATOCUMULUS PENETRATES THE AREA AS 
FAR S AS 10N AND W OF 112W.

E OF 110W...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 95W DOMINATED MOST OF THE 
AREA E OF 105W. A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WAS MOVING E 10 KT. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. 
20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS...THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT. 

$$
COBB