000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 6N77W 4N90W 3N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER NEVADA SWWD THROUGH 30N123W TO 24N140W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED WITHIN 120-180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST AREA NOTED 
TO THE NW OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
NEAR 22N137W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS MOVING THROUGH THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 22N140W-25N125W-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
INTO FAR NWRN MEXICO. CORE SPEEDS WERE NEAR 100 KT. JTST WAS
ADVECTING A PLUME OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE PACIFIC 
ACROSS BAJA INTO EXTREME NRN MEXICO. S OF 15N...MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BLANKETS THE TROPICS WITH A 
NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 12N. DRY AIR WAS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ, AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE 
EXTENDS SE ALONG 30N135W 15N104W WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS 
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET N OF 15N. MARINE 
LAYER STRATOCUMULUS PENETRATES THE AREA AS FAR S AS 10N AND W OF 
115W.

E OF 110W...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 95W DOMINATED MOST OF THE 
AREA E OF 105W. A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING 
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT 
WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING E AT 10 KT. MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. 20 TO 25 KT 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT. 

$$
COBB