000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 6N77W 4N90W 3N140W. NO SIG
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CA COAST TO 23N140W. N OF THE 
AREA...A 115 KT POLAR JET FINGER IS DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
OVER THE NORTHERN AREA INTO BAJA...CONTINUING OVER SW U.S...AND 
THROUGH THE SRN MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER MOISTURE PLUME 
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WIDE IS SPILLING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
S OF 15N...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BLANKETS 
THE TROPICS WITH A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 12N. AT THE 
SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SE ALONG 30N135W 15N104W WITH 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET N OF 15N. MARINE LAYER STRATOCUMULUS PENETRATES THE AREA AS 
FAR S AS 10N AND W OF 114W.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WWD FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER BAY 
OF CAMPECHE WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING 
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT 
WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING E-NEWD AT 15 KT. MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW TSTMS 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W AND 103W. A POSITIVE TILTED MID LEVEL 
PERTURBATION MOVING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 
TROUGH AND SPEED DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS 
SUPPORTING THE ACTIVITY. 20 TO 25 KT GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT 
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIKSCAT OVERPASS 
SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVER 
THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
FETT