000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180356
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 3N85W 6N100W 2N120W 1N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER W-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TO 
NEAR 26N127W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET CARVES OUT THE BASE OF 
TROUGH AND RUNS FROM 28N140W 26N125W CENTRAL BAJA INTO THE SW 
CONUS/NEW MEXICO. THIS JET WAS ADVECTING A 300-450 NM WIDE SWATH 
OF HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE 
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 100 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY 
AIR ALOFT COVERED THE TROPICS S OF 12N WITH A SHEARED UPPER 
TROUGH NOTED FROM 21N110W TO 3N122W. FLAT UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS 
THE AREA W OF 125W.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
AREA NEAR 30N120W DISSIPATING TO 28N124W. PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY 
POSSIBLE.   

E OF 110W...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH AN ELONGATED 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 5N97W. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR PANAMA AND WAS MOVING E 10 KT. 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE NEAR 16N107W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES 
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
92W AND 96W. LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWED 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS. 
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT 
24 -36 HOURS...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET 
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  

$$
COBB