000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N80W 6N92W 2N130W 4N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ALONG THE MID-CALIFORNIA COAST SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
AREA TO NEAR 28N131W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET CARVES OUT THE 
BASE OF TROUGH AND RUNS FROM 27N140W 27N120W CENTRAL BAJA INTO 
THE SW CONUS. THIS JET WAS ADVECTING A 400-500 NM WIDE SWATH OF 
HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE 
SPEEDS OF 90-110 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT 
COVERED THE TROPICS S OF 12N WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NOTED FROM 
21N110W TO 6N110W. UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE AREA W OF 125W.  
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N125W 
DISSIPATING TO 28N130W. PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND 
THE FRONT WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER.   

E OF 110W...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
4N96W. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR PANAMA AND WAS MOVING E 10-15 KT. A FEW TSTMS 
ARE BEING TOUCHED OFF BY THE TROUGH NEAR THE ITCZ.  
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. 20-25 KT WINDS 
REMAIN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR 
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE 
RATHER QUIET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  

$$
COBB