000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N90W 3N120W 5N140W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
1031 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N145W.  A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 37N122W TO 32N130W 
30N140W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE FRONT MOVING E. A RIDGE CONTINUES SE OF THE COLD 
FRONT TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 15N105W.  FAIR WEATHER 
PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT.  LIGHT TRADES ARE FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 
COLOMBIA AND 140W.  THE ITCZ MEANDERS IN THIS AREA WITH VERY 
LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE OR CONVECTION.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF 
THE ITCZ ALONG 15N117W 7N121W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA E OF 80W. 
20 KT WINDS ARE SPILLING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE PANAMANIAN 
PACIFIC COAST AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
LIKEWISE...A 20-25 KT GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT IS NOTED W OF 
COSTA RICA AND IS ALSO FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. A 
90-110 JETSTREAM IS NOTED N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W-140W.  A 
NARROW TROUGH IS N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W-120W.  AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 2N95W.  A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS N TO MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  

EXPECT... THE SURFACE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARDS 
CALIFORNIA AND NE MEXICO.  8-11 FT NLY SWELL WILL PUSH DOWN FROM 
THE SURFACE HIGH TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT.  

$$
FORMOSA