000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N82W 3N96W 5N110W 2N130W 1N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 87W AND 92W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 120W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE NE PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS 
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CYCLONES. ONE UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED 
INLAND TO A PSN OVER THE NW CONUS BUT STILL TRAILS AN UPPER 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N119W 
19N127W REACHING A STATIONARY AND BROAD BASE CENTERED NEAR 
3N128W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS 
NEAR 21N121W...AND IS SLOWLY LOSING IDENTITY AS IT SHIFTS ENE 
WITH TIME. A BAND OF UPPER DRY AIR IS INDICATED ALONG THE TROUGH 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N136W 19N125W AND CONTINUES 
TO BEYOND 32N116W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND JUST S OF THE 
TROUGH BASE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W ALONG 
THE ITCZ.

AN UPPER TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS NW ACROSS VENEZUELA...THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE DESERT SW 
OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM 
CONVECTION NEAR 14N153W SPREADS E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N142W TO 11N133W...THEN 
TURNS CYCLONICALLY NE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND WIDENS 
COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 17N BETWEEN 
128W AND 113W...THEN THE PLUME NARROWS AGAIN AND CONTINUES NE 
ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NW OLD MEXICO EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT 
OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS.

OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED E OF LINE 
21N107W 1N116W WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ 
NEAR 4N88W.  THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS EVAPORATING 
ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREA.  

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE LIES ALONG 30N140W TO 10N105W AND 
EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LARGE NW 
SWELLS MAXING ABOUT 15 FT ARE PROPAGATING SE THROUGH THE NW 
WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. NE OF THE RIDGE...NLY WINDS 20 
KT...OCCASIONALLY 25 KT...CONTINUE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE 
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE WILL RELAX THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT NW 
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE 
WATERS W OF 110W. 

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT...INDICATED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS GRADIENT CONTINUES IN W 
CARIBBEAN. NLY WINDS 20...MAYBE 25 KT...IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE BY SUNSET TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW 
BECOMES SLY IN SW GULF OF MEXICO. 

$$
NELSON