000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N78W 3N95W 5N110W 2N130W 1N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN CALIFORNIA THROUGH 30N122W 
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N126W. BOTH ARE MOVING E ABOUT 
20 KT. A BAND OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS INDICATED W OF THE TROUGH 
AND WITHIN AN AREA FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 137W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND JUST S OF THE TROUGH BASE IS ENHANCING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 128W ALONG THE ITCZ. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS IS ADVECTING 
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...NWRN MEXICO
INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF THE U.S. FURTHER W...AN UPPER MOISTURE 
PLUME ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION NEAR 12N152W SPREADS E INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W AND IS CAPPING A 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 144W. AT THE SURFACE...DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
30N120W TO 26N132W. HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING THROUGH THE FRONT 
GENERALLY N OF 15N W OF 115W. 

E OF 110W...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE AREA E OF 110W 
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN...
CENTRAL AMERICA...W CARIBBEAN AND FAR SRN GULF OF MEXICO. 
DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA WAS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. 
2324 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A CONTINUATION OF THE NELY 
WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE ALSO 
BEGUN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 
ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY IN SW GULF 
OF MEXICO. 

$$
COBB