000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 4N90W 4N113W 5N123W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N86.5W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE NE PACIFIC WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 
CYCLONES. ONE CYCLONE HAS MOVED NE TO A PSN OVER THE NW CONUS 
TRAILING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 32N126W 21N131W REACHING A BROAD BASE WITH AXIS NEAR 
2N129W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS 
NEAR 23N127W AND IS LOSING IDENTITY AS IT SHIFTS NE WITH TIME. A 
BAND OF UPPER DRY AIR IS INDICATED W OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 250 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 24N142W 23N129W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND 
JUST S OF THE TROUGH BASE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION W OF 
120W ALONG THE ITCZ.

AN UPPER TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 
5N66W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
16N91W AND CONTINUING NW CRESTING NEAR 30N123W. 

AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION NEAR 12N152W 
SPREADS E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 12N144W 12N127W AND ANOTHER PLUME HAS MOVED N TO WITHIN 360 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 22N126W TO 29N114W...THEN NARROWS TO 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 29N110W AND CONTINUES CYCLONICALLY NE 
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF 
CONUS. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED SE OF 
LINE 10N127W 24N108W 30N80W WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION 
ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 4N86W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE EVAPORATING ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREA.  

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG 
32N127W 28N140W AND IS BLOCKED BY A HIGH PRES NEAR 28N125W 1023 
MB RIDGING SE TO 10N105W. LARGE SWELLS MAXING ABOUT 15 FT LAG 
BEHIND THE FRONT. NE OF THE RIDGE NLY WINDS 20 KT... 
OCCASIONALLY 25 KT...CONTINUE BOTH SIDES OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
STRONG GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE WILL RELAX A LITTLE BY 48 
HOURS...BUT NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE AND WILL CROSS 
THE EQUATOR TODAY. RIDGE WILL SHIFT NW AND BRIDGE FRONTAL 
REMNANTS IN 24 HOURS. 

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT...INDICATED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS GRADIENT CONTINUES IN W 
CARIBBEAN. NLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 20 KT IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED THEN DECREASE WED NIGHT AS FLOW 
BECOMES SLY IN SW GULF OF MEXICO. 

$$
NELSON