000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 4N100W 7N120W 4N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 3N86.5W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. 
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH. FIRST 
SHORTWAVE IS BRUSHING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 130W. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
23N129W SWD TO 17N133W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WAS LOCATED W OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 130W WITH SOME 
OF THE DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND TO THE S OF THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 115W. ZONAL FLOW WAS INDICATED S OF 15N 
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE TROPICS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATED AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS ALONG 19N140W THROUGH THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE THEN CURVED ACYC OVER THE RIDGE 
NOTED ABOVE THROUGH 24N127W 31N118W. CORE SPEEDS APPROACHED 100 
KT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERED THE AREA FROM 
30N135W TO 29N140W. 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR     
28N128W WITH RIDGE TO 18N107W. 

E OF 110W...
BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE DOMINATED THE AREA E OF 110W WITH A VAST 
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE PACIFIC 
...CENTRAL AMERICA...CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF MEXICO. THE DRY AIR 
WAS INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A SMALL AREA WITHIN 60 NM OF 3N86.5W. ELSEWHERE A DIFFUSE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED NEAR 10N105W AND WAS MOVING NW 
15 KT. 

GAP WINDS...
2350 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB