000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N78W 5N125W 2N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W AND BETWEEN 110W AND 
135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE NE PACIFIC WITH AN EMBEDDED 
CYCLONE NEAR 46N142W. A UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM 
THE CYCLONE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N140W 20N138W TO A 
BASE NEAR 5N128W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED ALONG THE 
TROUGH NEAR 22N136W AND SHIFTING NE WITH TIME. A BAND OF UPPER 
DRY AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 34N115W 
30N134W 24N144W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS S OF 22N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE JUST E OF THE TROUGH BASE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 5N130W WITH THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATING ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREA.  

AN UPPER TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 7N96W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW AND CRESTING GENTLY ALONG 20N135W 27N122W 
29N110W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED WITHIN 420 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE FROM 18N133W TO 25N110W WHERE THE PLUME NARROWS AS 
IT SPREADS NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO THEN TURNING E ACROSS 
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY 
SPILLING SE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED SE OF LINE 10N125W 20N100W 24N80W WITH 
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ ROUGHLY IN 
PHASE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N139W TO 10N100W. NE OF 
THE RIDGE NLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE W OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. STRONG GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE 
WILL RELAX A LITTLE BY 48 HOURS...BUT NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD SE...CROSSING THE EQUATOR IN ABOUT 42 HOURS. 

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT INDICATED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS GRADIENT CONTINUES IN W 
CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH NLY WINDS ONLY ABOUT 10 KT JUST S OF THE 
GULF OF PANAMA THIS MORNING MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE 20 KT 
NEXT DAY OR SO AND THIS MAY BE MENTIONED IN FUTURE 
PACKAGES.      

$$
NELSON