000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 6N87W 3N105W 7N116W 2N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N85W 5N97W AND 5N131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AS THE 
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WRN US TONIGHT. THE 
OVERALL UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME WSW E OF 120W AND WNW W OF 120W 
TONIGHT. THIS IS ALLOWING THE OLD CUTOFF LOW JUST W OF THE AREA 
THE PAST TWO DAYS TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EWD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE THE GFS 
MODEL MORE POSTIVELY TILTED. THE SIGNIFICANCE BEING THE TROUGH 
MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MODEL DEPICTS. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 
30N140W SE TO 10N105W. A LARGE AREA OF NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT 
COVERS AN AREA BETWEEN 6N TO 26N W OF 120W ACCORDING TO SSMI AND 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ARE 
MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT BUT INCREASE NEAR THE SRN TIP OF THE 
PENINSULA SWD TO 20N TO 20 TO 25 KT. GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST ARE MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW ONE 
AREA N OF 10N E OF 87W ALONG THE COSTA RICAN AND LOWER 
NICARAGUAN COAST WITH ELY WINDS TO 20 KT. 

FOR DAY 1 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE CUTOFF TROUGH MOVING E TO 134W 
WITH HINTS OF A NEW DEEP VORTEX WELL N OF THE AREA BEGINNING TO 
MOVE ESE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 1 A NEW COLD FRONT APPEARS JUST N 
OF THE AREA ALONG 33N MOVING ESE. THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 30N140W SE TO 10N105W WITH NO CHANGE IN WIND AREAS. A LARGE 
AREA OF NLY SWELL 12 TO 14 FT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD OVER THE 
AREA BETWEEN 10N AND 25N W OF 115W. THE MODEL DOES PICK UP ON 
THE GAP WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE W OF COSTA RICA AND LOWER 
NICARAGUA FOR DAY 1. 

DAY 2 FINDS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING FROM THE CA COAST SWD AS 
THE DEEP VORTEX APPROACHES THE COAST N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL 
INFLUENCE THE CUTOFF SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT MAKING IT MOVE MORE WNW 
TOWARD THE BAJA COAST. ON THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS 
IT MOVES INTO THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK 
UP A BIT TO 20 KT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS AN AREA OF 
INCREASING SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND IT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
ARE N OF 28N LATE DAY 2 WITH HEIGHTS TO 12 FT. THE OLD AREA OF 
SWELL SAGS SWD TO NEAR THE EQUATOR LATE DAY 2 WITH HEIGHTS TO 12 
FT FROM THE N. NE TRADES WILL ALSO MOVE SWD AND ENCOMPASS AN 
AREA BETWEEN 5N AND 20N W OF 120W WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL BE NLY 15 TO 20 KT. SOME ELY 
WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 8N AND 12N E OF 93W WILL CONTINUE DAY 2. 

$$
RRG