000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N78W 4N110W 4N125W 1N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTROLS AREA N OF 25N W OF 110W 
WITH JET STREAM OF 90-110 KT RUNNING NE ON LEE SIDE AND 
ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS E PAC N OF 10N INTO N HALF 
OF MEXICO AND NW GULF OF MEXICO.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF 
15N W OF 110W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE S OF 10N THROUGH 110W THE S OF 20N E OF 110W WITH 
ONLY MINOR CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 100W AND W OF 123W.  

DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 85W EXTENDS ARE OF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...HENCE DRY AIR MASS...INTO S HALF OF GULF OF 
MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 02N140W TO 18N113W 
MAINTAINS BRISK TRADES FROM INTO 22N W OF 120W.  
ELSEWHERE...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING SE AFFECTING FORECAST WATERS 
N OF 20N.

$$
WALLY BARNES