000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...4N78W 5N97W 3N110W 4N122W 
EQUATOR/139W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N78W AND 7N84W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER COLD CORE TROUGH WAS SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE WRN 
US TONIGHT. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WERE BEGINNING TO RISE OVER THE 
REGION N OF 20N AS THE MAIN AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVED E ALONG 
115W. A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 20N143W WAS MOVING E 10 TO 15 KT. A 
SUBTROPIC JET WAS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FORM 15N140W TO 
EXTREME SRN BAJA THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE THE 
MID PACIFIC HIGH EXTENDED FROM 30N140W TO 15N105W. SSMI AND 
QUIKSCAT SHOWED STRONG NW WINDS E OF 125W N OF 25N. LARGE NW 
SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FT WAS ALSO OVER THIS AREA. NE TRADES FROM 5N 
TO 24N W OF 125W WHERE MOSTLY 20 TO 25 KT.

FOR DAY 1 THE LARGE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH THE UPPER 
FLOW BECOMING MORE WLY. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO 
NEAR 20N140W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH DAY 1 TO 10 TO 15 KT BUT LARGE NW SWELL OF 10 TO 15 FT 
WILL CONTINUE. NE TRADES BETWEEN 5N AND 20N W OF 115W SHOULD BE 
MOSTLY NE 20 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAPTURE THE CUTOFF LOW 
AND OPEN IT UP AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 132W. WINDS ALONG THE LOWER 
BAJA C0AST S OF 25N WILL INCREASE FROM THE N AT 20 KT WITH NW 
SWELL 9 TO 11 FT. NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 12N AND 22N W 
OF 120W ARE FORECAST WITH NLY SWELL INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 FT. 
SOME INCREASE IN NE WINDS W OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA TO 20 KT 
WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FT FOR DAY 2.

$$
RRG