000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...4N77W 6N86W 3N100W 3N120W 
EQ134W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 
85W TO 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE AREA IS DIVIDED INTO TWO MAIN REGIONS.  REGION ONE IS A 
TROUGH AREA.  THIS IS MADE UP OF TWO PARTS ALSO.  ONE IS THE 
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 
AN AXIS ALONG ABOUT 117W AND NORTH OF ABOUT 20N.  A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE IS SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST 
PART OF THE AREA.  THE AREA IS SOMEWHAT DRY ALOFT IMPLYING UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITH 
PATCHY AREAS OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH 
IS ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER 
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.  N OF 26N FROM THE BAJA COAST W 
TO ABOUT 132W NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FOUND. VERY LARGE NWLY 
SWELLS OF 15-22 FT WILL BE BUILDING W OF THE BAJA COAST. THESE 
SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OTHERWISE A BROAD RIDGE IS AT THE 
SURFACE.  

ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 135W AND IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT OFF LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA 
NEAR 23N144W.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND BE 
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER MIDDLE LATITUDE FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

OTHERWISE IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA.  DRY AIR 
IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR A PLUME OF 
MOISTURE ABOUT 500 NM WIDE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR 15N140W TO 
18N110W TO BEYOND 21N100W. SOME UPPER LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE.

THE ONLY CONVECTION IS THAT MENTIONED ALONG THE ITCZ.
 
WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 KT 
MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. 

$$
LL