000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N86W 3N100W 1N130W EQ132W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
FROM 84W-93W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES 
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AND COVERS MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 
132W. JET STREAM IS SEEN ALONG THE LINE 34N130W 31N122W AND 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
IS SEEN WITHIN 75 NM OF THE JET. AREA OF GALE FORCE NW WINDS 
ARE OCCURRING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. N OF 26N FROM THE 
BAJA COAST W TO ABOUT 132W NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FOUND.
VERY LARGE NWLY SWELLS OF 15-22 FT WILL BE BUILDING W OF THE 
BAJA COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LARGE CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED WEST OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 22N144W. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS 
ALONG 18N137W TO 24N139W. 
  
E OF 105W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA 
NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. RIDGE EXTENDS SW ALONG 13N100W TO 
NEAR 8N110W. MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
AIR. SMALL AREA OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ 
NEAR AREA OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA.

WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 KT 
MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. 

$$
BROWN