000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 5N90W 3N102W 4N120W EQUATOR/132W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE COAST NEAR 6N77W AND 
BETWEEN 5N87W AND 5N92W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE 
REGION N OF 20N. A STRONG JET IS EVIDENT DIGGING SE IN THE WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY. A FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPIC JET IS OVER THE SRN 
PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 12N140W TO 20N105W WHERE IT CROSSES 
CENTRAL MEXICO. A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW WAS JUST W OF THE AREA 
NEAR 20N144W AND DRIFTING E. ON THE SURFACE MAP TONIGHT THE MID 
PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM 30N140W TO 14N105W. QUIKSCAT AND 
SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE 
AREA N OF 27N E OF 130W. NE TRADES W OF 130W WERE MOSTLY 20 TO 
25 KT. 

FOR DAY 1 A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE 
OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 140W N OF 20N. THE CUTOFF 
LOW JUST W OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY NEAR 
20N143W. ON THE SURFACE STRONG NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WILL 
CONTINUE N OF 27N E OF 125W WITH NW SWELL BUILDING 15 TO 21 FT. 
NE TRADES WILL BE CONFINED TO AN AREA BETWEEN 7N AND 20N W OF 
120W AT 20 KT. GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST WILL 
BE MOSTLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION E WINDS COULD 
PICK UP W OF NICARAGUA TO 20 KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE DEEP VORTEX N OF THE AREA MOVES INLAND OVER THE 
WRN US WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WLY N OF 20N. THE 
CUTOFF LOW JUST W OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY 
THE WLY FLOW AND BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TO NEAR 20N140W. ON THE 
SURFACE THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY 
WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT CONFINED BETWEEN 7N AND 22N W OF 115W. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BUT 
LARGE NW SWELL OF 10 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE. GAP WINDS W OF 
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA SHOULD BE NE TO E TO 20 KT DAY 2.

$$
RRG