000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N78W 5N88W 2N102W 1N120W EQUATOR/140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF N 
AMERICA TONIGHT IS LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 
DIGGING JET DROPPING SWD NEAR 28N120W. A SUBTROPIC JET IS NOTED 
TONIGHT ALONG 20N HEADING ENE ACROSS EXTREME S BAJA AND ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE 
EXTENDS SE FROM 30N140W TO 15N105W. 

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 115W WILL DOMINATE THE 
UPPER LEVELS DAY 1. ON THE SURFACE THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE WILL 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY..2 MB..BUT IT'S AXIS WILL CHANGE LITTLE. NW 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT DAY 1 BUT NW 
SWELL WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO 10 FT N OF 29N. QUIKSCAT AND SSMI 
SHOW NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 25 KT AND MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY 
DAY 1. 

FOR DAY 2 A NEW COLD SURGE WILL DROP RAPIDLY SWD IN THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH 
REMAINS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. ON THE SURFACE A 
STRONG NW SURGE WITH W AND NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WILL BRUSH BY 
THE REGION N OF 28N E OF 125W DAY 2. ALONG WITH THE WINDS..NW 
SWELL WILL INCREASE 15 TO 21 FT N OF 26N E OF 135W TO THE BAJA 
COAST.
THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DAY 2 WITH NE TRADES 
S OF 20N W OF 120W GENERALLY TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS ALONG THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM TEHUANTEPEC TO PANAMA WILL REMAIN 
MOSTLY LIGHT.









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RRG