000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 1N120W 1N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SWD ALONG THE W 
COAST OF THE CONUS AND IS IMPINGING UPON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A 
LARGE RETROGRADING ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
31N150W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 125W. A 
SHARP SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS IS LOCATED S OF THE AREA OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH 23N115W 21N130W 
22N140W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS. AXIS OF STRONG 
SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDS FROM 19N140W ENEWD THROUGH 20N125W 
EXTREME SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO N-CENTRAL MEXICO. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS STILL INDICATE CORE SPEEDS OF 100-125 KT. JTST 
CAPPED AN AREA OF WSWLY AND SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE 
TROPICS W OF 110W. DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WAS INDICATED S OF THE 
JTST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. AT THE 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT POISED TO ENTER THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. 

E OF 110W...
LARGE WELL ESTABLISHED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 9N93W DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 110W. BASE OF MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS IMPINGING UPON THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST
CONTINUES FROM W OF 110W ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SRN TEXAS. JTST
WAS ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS 
MEXICO...NRN CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERED THE SRN HALF OF RIDGE 
KEEPING AREA S OF 10N AND E OF 110W VERY DRY SUPPRESSING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN ITCZ.
   
GAP WINDS...
THE 2354 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO 
HAVE DECREASED TO 10 TO 15 KT. LACK OF FORCING FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB