000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091643
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  5N77W  1N120W  1N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N99W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 21N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
TROUGH AXIS BUT LARGE SWATH OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE S AND E OF 
AXIS ENTERING SRN BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO EMBEDDED IN 110 KT JET 
STREAM.  SECOND BRANCH SUBTROPICAL JET WITH MUCH WEAKER 60 KT 
CORE ALSO ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO SRN MEXICO AND SOON 
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.  

LARGE WELL ESTABLISHED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC SWIRL AT 
8N96W SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND DRIFTING E FORCED BY 
UPSTREAM TROUGH ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BUDGE INTO LAND AREAS.  
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN SRN HALF OF RIDGE KEEPS AREA 
S OF 10N AND E OF 127W VERY DRY CURTAILING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IN ITCZ IN SPITE OF ALL THE MOISTURE UP NORTH.    

HIGH PRES 1028 MB NW OF FORECAST AREA MAINTAIN STEADY FLUX OF 
BRISK TRADES ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF E PAC AND EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  HIGH PRES MOVE E INCREASING 
WINDS ALONG W COAST OF USA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.  GAP WINDS HAVE 
SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXPECTED TO BE GONE IN LESS THAN 12 
HRS...EVEN IF ONLY TO RETURN SOON. 

$$
WALLY BARNES