000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 1N90W 1N106W EQUATOR/117W 
1N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N94W AND 4N96W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WHILE A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS NRN MEXICO 
TONIGHT..A WEAKER PORTION EXTENDED BACK FROM NRN BAJA TO 
22N132W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG SRN BRANCH 
OF THE WESTERLIES CROSSING THE AREA S OF 20N ENE ACROSS SRN BAJA 
AND NRN MEXICO. FURTHER W A LARGE CLOSED UPPER HIGH WAS CENTERED 
JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 32N144W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
MODERATELY STRONG MID PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDED SE OVER THE AREA 
FROM 30N137W TO 10N100W. THE RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GUSTY NE 
TRADES TO 25 KT BETWEEN 7N AND 25N W OF 120W AND NW WINDS TO 25 
KT ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI 
IMAGERY.  

FOR DAY 1 THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION 
RECEDES EWD AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EWD. 
THE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE NW OF THE AREA REMAINS STATIONARY. ON THE 
SURFACE THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE WITH NE TRADES 
REMAINING BRISK TO 25 KT FROM 8N TO 24N W OF 120W. NW WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT WITH NW SWELL 
DEVELOPING TO 9 FT.

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER 
MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 20N. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SWD TO 
NEAR 20N145W. WITH MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE SWD..THE SURFACE 
MID PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS ABOUT 4 MB BUT REMAINS IN THE SAME 
PLACE. CONSEQUENTLY NE TRADES DECREASE TO 20 KT AND WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KT. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO 
INCREASE ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA REACHING HEIGHTS OF 
15 TO 21 FT N OF 25N DAY 3. 

$$
RRG