000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N81W 4N90W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N94W AND S OF 2N BETWEEN 107W AND 
112W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDS SW 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N117W 27N130W TO NEAR HAWAII. 
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING SSE ALONG 30N FROM 117W 
TO 32N140W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED NW OF LINE 32N114W 
24N128W 18N140W. 

A MOISTURE PLUME SPILLS SE ACROSS AN UPSTREAM CENTRAL PACIFIC 
RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG 160W INTO DISCUSSION AREA ROUGHLY WITHIN 
450 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N140W 20N120W TO BEYOND 32N103W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ AXIS NEAR 128W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MERGING WITH THIS 
PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES NEAR 
35N142N RIDGES SE TO 15N105W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 5N65W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
NW ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA THEN TURNING NE ACROSS THE 
CONUS INTO CANADA ROUGHLY ALONG 92W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN 
ENHANCING ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 3N94W 
WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATING IN THE SAME AREA. 
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF 
110W. 

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME SLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRISK NLY WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA 
WILL CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24-30 HOURS THEN DECREASE.

$$
NELSON