000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N81W 4N90W 3N120W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 94W AND 180 NM N OF 
AXIS FROM 126W TO 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDS SW 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N126W TO NEAR HAWAII. AN 
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ALONG 33N FROM 119W TO 
32N140W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED NW OF LINE 32N114W 17N140W. 
A MOISTURE PLUME SPILLS SE ACROSS AN UPSTREAM CENTRAL PACIFIC 
RIDGE ALONG 160W INTO DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 450 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 10N14020N120W TO BEYOND 32N104W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF 
TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 128W 
WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MERGING WITH THE PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES NEAR 35N142N RIDGES SE TO 
16N105W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 5N65W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
NW ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA THEN TURNING NE ACROSS THE 
CONUS INTO CANADA ROUGHLY ALONG 92W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN 
ENHANCING ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 4N90W 
WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATING IN THE SAME AREA. 
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF 
110W. 

HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL BECOME SLY AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE DECREASED 
BELOW 20 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRISK NLY WINDS IN GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WILL CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 30 HOURS THEN 
DECREASE.

$$
NELSON