000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 8N81W  4N91W 3N120W 
4N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 
85W TO 95W AND 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 32N126W TO 11N136W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD 
TO EQUATOR AT 130W.  DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS N OF 
17N WHILE INCOMING JET CORE OF 70 KT ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
INTO SW PORTION OF E PAC ENABLING ITCZ TO DEVELOP SCATTERED 
CONVECTION W OF 125W.  WET SWATH CONTINUES NE APPROACHING BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HR.  

WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONIC SWIRL AT 6N96W HAS HEFTY RIDGE EXTEND 
WELL BEYOND TEXAS BIG BEND REGION KEEPING COVERED AREA UNDER DRY 
AIR MASS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  RIDGE EXTENDS 
DRYNESS WELL INTO CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO.  ONLY A STREAK 
OF MOISTURE OFF COLOMBIAN COAST SHOWS SIGNS OF SOME CONVECTION 
FROM 85W TO 95W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 32N117W 30N119W 23N134W
...REMNANTS OF OLD COLD FRONT WHICH WAS LEFT WITHOUT SUPPORT BY 
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...USING ADVECTED MOISTURE TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION SINCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES IT. 

GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA GAP WINDS DECREASE TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 30 HRS WHILE TRADES REMAIN STRONG IN 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE WELL NW OF FORECAST WATERS.

$$
WALLY BARNES