000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC FOR EAST OF 110W AND 0800 UTC FOR WEST OF 110W.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 5N77W 
5N95W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO MAIN REGIONS IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 32N111W TO 
20N120W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 120W A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
DOMINATES THE FLOW.  TWO SHORTWAVES ARE TRAVELING NORTHEAST 
ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE TROUGH AREA.  ONE IS CENTERED 
NEAR 25N122W THE OTHER IS NEAR 18N134W.  BOTH ARE MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS.  BOTH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
OCCASIONAL CONVECTION.  AT 0900 UTC SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 23.5N120.2W.  OTHERWISE 
THE TROUGH AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOMEWHAT DRY AIR IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IMPLYING WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS.  A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS FLOWING NORTHEAST ALONG THE 
EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND IS MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND NORTHWEST MEXICO.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IMPLYING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  
SKIES ARE CLEAR OUTSIDE THE ITCZ REGION.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE 
THROUGH 32N118W TO 25N130W TO 23N140W.  OTHERWISE THE AREA NORTH 
OF 12N WEST OF 105W IS COVERED BY WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE.  
ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT NLY 20 KT 
WINDS THROUGH 30 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA THEN 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 36 HOURS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NE 
TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND N TO NE 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THAT WILL CONTINUE 
FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT IN 48 HOURS.

$$
LL