000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 6N88W 1N109W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 84W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 7N124W TO BEYOND 6N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS
WITH MEAN LONGWAVE AXIS ALONG 130W WITH A BASE NEAR THE EQUATOR 
AT 130W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N126W 15N135W. DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N121W 22N133W TO 
BEYOND 25N143W. A MOISTURE PLUME SPILLS SE ACROSS AN UPSTREAM 
CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE ALONG 160W INTO DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 180 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N140W 14N125W THEN WIDENS AS IT 
CONTINUES NE TO BEYOND 32N112W AND ACROSS UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
DESERT SW OF CONUS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF TROUGH OCCASIONALLY 
ENHANCES ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 14N135W 
21N122W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MERGING WITH THE PLUME FROM THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 145W WITH THE UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE NE TO NEAR 10N120W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO 
23N139W WITH HIGH PRES NEAR 25N121W 1022 MB BLOCKING THE 
EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. NEW HIGH PRES TO THE NW WILL 
BRIDGE THE FRONTAL REMNANTS BY 24 HOURS.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 3N65W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN TURNING N ACROSS THE CONUS INTO 
CANADA ALL ALONG 104W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING 
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 4N94W. OTHERWISE 
DRY UPPER AIR AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF 110W. 

HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT NLY 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS THROUGH 24 HOURS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN DECREASE 
BELOW 20 KT BY 30 HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRISK NLY WINDS IN 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WILL CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS.

$$
NELSON