000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 6N88W 1N109W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 6N128W TO BEYOND 6N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A POSITIVE TILT LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN SEABOARD 
OF THE CONUS WITH A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NOTED NEAR 39N123W AND 
MOVING NE ONSHORE CALIFORNIA. THE MEAN LONGWAVE AXIS STILL SEEMS 
TO BE ALONG 127W WITH A BASE NEAR 4N127W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N126W 
16N136W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 29N124W 21N132W 24N142W. A MOISTURE PLUME SPILLS SE ACROSS 
AN UPSTREAM CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE ALONG 160W INTO DISCUSSION 
AREA WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N140W 15N127W THEN 
WIDENS TO BEYOND 32N113W AND ACROSS UPPER LEVELS OF THE DESERT 
SW OF CONUS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF TROUGH ENHANCING ISOLATED 
CONVECTION NEAR 15N135W AND 20N126W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
MERGING WITH THE PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
128W AND 144W WITH THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE JUST BEGINNING TO  
MOVE NE. 

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 24N139W 
BUT A HIGH PRES NEAR 26N122W 1024 MB WILL PARTIALLY BLOCK THE 
EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO ALONG ABOUT 120W WITH NEW HIGH 
PRES TO THE NW BRIDGING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS BY 36 HOURS.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 3N65W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN TURNING N ACROSS THE CONUS INTO 
CANADA ALL ALONG 104W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING 
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 5N95W. OTHERWISE 
DRY UPPER AIR AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF 112W. 

HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT NLY 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS THROUGH 24 HOURS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN DECREASE 
BELOW 20 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRISK NLY WINDS IN GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
NELSON