000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N77W 5N88W 1N103W 1N120W 3N135W 4N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 
125W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 105W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N126W TO 13N130W BRINGS 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 NM OF 
AXIS INTO AN OTHERWISE MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE.  WEAKEN 95 KT 
JET STREAM CONTINUES ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO FORECAST 
WATERS S AND E OF TROUGH AXIS.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE COMBINES WITH 
TROUGH TO PRODUCE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN 600 NM SWATH HEADING 
NE.  ITCZ USING AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INCREASE CONVECTION ALONG 
ITS AXIS W OF 125W.  E OF WELL ANCHORED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
ALONG 108W SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT MINOR 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ FROM 90W TO 105W.
RIDGE FORCES UPSTREAM TROUGH TO TURN MORE NE TAKING MOISTURE N 
OF 30N KEEPING BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO DRY...FOR THE TIME 
BEING AS SECOND BRANCH OF MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THEIR COASTS 
WITHIN 24-36 HR.    

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO 23N140W.  HIGH PRES 1022 MB UNDER UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED 25N123 EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AS 
FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES E-NE.  SQUEEZE ON RIDGE AGAINST COASTAL 
RANGE INCREASES NW FLOW ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTAL SECTIONS 
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.  BRISK TRADES SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS UNDISTURBED AND STATIONARY.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT SHOULD 
REMAIN STRONG OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  MODELS AND SCATTEROMETER 
ALSO SUGGEST N WIND IN GULF OF PANAMA TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL 
DAYS.

$$
WALLY BARNES