000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N77W 4N85W EQUATOR AT 115W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 120W WITH MEAN AXIS 
ALONG 130W. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N129W WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH 
30N128W TO 14N136W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS EFFECTIVELY 
RETROGRADED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS 
WESTWARD TO ALONG 130W. A BROAD AREA OF DIFLUENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT 
IS OCCURRING SE OF TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 5N TO 30N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 130W. THIS FLOW IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45-60 NM OF 14.5N132W AND ALSO 
ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE  
NE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND THE SW CONUS. AT THE 
SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 24N140W. HIGH PRES 
1022 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 25N117W AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
STATIONARY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS TO ITS NORTH.

E OF 110W...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATED THE PACIFIC E OF 110W
WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 100-105W. CONFLUENT WSWLY FLOW ORIGINATED 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SPREAD EWD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA  
AND THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN A RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE AREA. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED 
ALONG THE ITCZ...EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W 
AND 105W. 

GAP WINDS...
2356 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 20 KT 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WERE STILL IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. HIGH PRESS IN THE GULF MAY RESULT 
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE NLY WINDS BRIEFLY IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY REINFORCE THE NE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NLY WINDS IN 
GULF OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
COBB