000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060351
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 4N95W EQUATOR AT 112W 3N123W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 100W AND 
BETWEEN 124W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE E PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
HAS EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD TO ALONG 32N132W 18N133W REACHING A BASE 
NEAR 4N123W. THIS TROUGH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LONGWAVE 
RIDGES WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL N PACIFIC 
ROUGHLY ALONG 160W WHILE THE EASTERN RIDGE ORIGINATES OVER 
VENEZUELA EXTENDS NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND CONTINUES ACROSS 
THE CONUS INTO CANADA ALONG 106W. 

DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC IS SPILLING E OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE TURNING  
CYCLONICALLY E WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N140W TO 
20N125W WHERE IT WIDENS AND CONTINUES NE BEYOND 32N120W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 17N133W WITH THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE MIXING WITH THE PLUME FROM FURTHER W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ALONG THE TROUGH BASE ENHANCED CONVECTION EARLIER ALONG THE ITCZ 
NEAR 128W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE STILL SPREADING NE BUT LOSING 
IDENTITY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 4N127W 16N111W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ NEAR 4N94W...BUT THE MOISTURE DRIES IN THE SAME AREA.
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 26N140W. 
HIGH PRES 1022 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 289N120W AND IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE SSW A FEW HUNDRED MILES THUS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE E 
THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 25N. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL 
ONLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS BEFORE 
DIVING SE THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS 
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE N WINDS BRIEFLY IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TUE...AND REINFORCE THE NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NLY WINDS IN GULF OF PANAMA WILL 
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
NELSON