000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N80W 4N90W TO EQUATOR AT 106W THEN 3N124W 
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 100W 
AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE E PACIFIC WITH AN EMBEDDED  
VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 44N135W. A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADED THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD TO ALONG 32N134W 
18N133W REACHING A BASE SOMEWHAT STATIONARY NEAR 2N123W. THIS 
TROUGH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LONGWAVE RIDGES WITH THE 
WESTERN RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL N PACIFIC ROUGHLY ALONG 
160W WHILE THE EASTERN RIDGE ORIGINATES OVER VENEZUELA AND 
DOMINATES CENTRAL AND N AMERICA BETWEEN 115W AND 75W. 

DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC IS SPILLING E OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE TURNING  
CYCLONICALLY E WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N140W TO 
BEYOND 32N120W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 
17N134W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MIXING WITH THE PLUME FROM 
FURTHER W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE TROUGH BASE ENHANCED 
CONVECTION EARLIER ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 126W WITH THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE STILL SPREADING NE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
4N127W 16N111W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 4N93W...BUT THE 
MOISTURE IS REMAINING S OF 6N FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE DRY 
UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO TO 26N140W. 
HIGH PRES 1028 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 29N120W AND IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE SW A FEW HUNDRED MILES THUS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE E 
THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 25N. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL 
ONLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS BEFORE 
DIVING SE THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE N WINDS BRIEFLY IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE...AND REINFORCE THE NE WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. MODELS SUGGEST NLY WIND IN GULF OF PANAMA WILL 
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
NELSON